The next big release of the weekend, after Split's big $40 million debut weekend, is xXx: Return of Xander Cage. The Paramount/Viacom Inc. release, a co-production with Revolution to the tune of $85m, is a sequel to 2002's xXx and 2005's xXx: State of the Union. The Vin Diesel film was positioned as a sequel as well as a would-be franchise reboot, something akin to Fast & Furious which brought the original The Fast and the Furious cast back together back in 2009. But lightning didn't strike twice, at least not in North America.
The film earned $20 million over its opening weekend. That's below the $46m debut of the first xXx back in 2002, although that was Vin Diesel coming off the first Fast and the Furious. But it's a lot better (even adjusted for inflation) than the $12m debut of Ice Cube's xXx: State of the Union back in 2005. It's not a crazy huge debut weekend, but Paramount and Revolution were always betting on big overseas bounties for this threequel.
The relative over-performance of M. Night Shyamalan's Split isn't helping the Xander Zone. The good news is that this one was engineered to kick butt overseas, with an inclusive (and delightful) supporting cast including Donnie Yen, Deepika Padukone, Toni Collette, Tony Jaa and Ruby Rose among many others. The film earned a solid $50.5 million overseas for a $70.5m debut weekend around the world. For what it's worth, that's about the entire global cume ($71m) of xXx: State of the Union.
If you want to play "fun with math," a $50 million debut in 54% of the world gives the film an eventual $92m "100% of overseas" debut. Give it a 2.5x multiplier on average in the various territories and you get a $50m domestic total and a $230m overseas cume for a $280m worldwide total on an $85m budget. If it plays out like that, and it could go either way (it's the kind of grindhouse action movie that makes $50m in China alone), it's arguably a solid double, especially if the film's gonzo quality gets fans/casual action junkies interested in another round in the Xander Zone.
Also helping is that the film is actually pretty good, or at least it's good for those that are into this kind of thing. But, as a general rule, you don't want to be one of those "No, no, wait, it's actually pretty good!" movies heading into opening weekend. I might argue that Paramount perhaps should have screened this one early to get the word out about how crazy fun it is. Yet the film is currently at 42% (average critic score: 4.8/10), so perhaps the relative acclaim from myself and those at my screening the other night was a result of some weirdly disconnected bubble.
Again, this one is all about overseas riches for Paramount (which is footing around half of the bill). But at least in North America, the film may turn out to be another long-dormant franchise that wasn't re-embraced with open arms. At the very least, you can't argue that Vin Diesel and friends merely banked on franchise nostalgia. They delivered a great cast, some truly clever action, and a shameless kitchen sink mentality. I have to wonder if that cast and that (relatively generic) plot might have done better absent the explicit franchise tie-in. But that's a theoretical question for another day.
There were two other smaller-scale debuts this weekend, starting with The Founder. Originally slated for August of last year, the Michael Keaton vehicle, which concerns the morally murky origins of McDonald's, was moved into an unusual Oscar-friendly slot whereby it ran for a week last December at the Arclight before opening in 1,115 theaters this weekend. Alas, with Weinstein Company committing full-throttle to Lion for would-be Oscar glory, the John Lee Hancock film got tossed to the side. So cue a$3.37 million debut weekend.
The good news is that the film only cost $7 million to produce, so there isn't much at stake other than pride. The film got solid reviews, especially for Keaton's star turn, but it just got lost in the shuffle as Hidden Figures and La La Land snagged all the adult/Oscar viewers. It's a good and interesting film, although I wonder if yesterday was the best day to release a drama about a cutthroat capitalist who screws over small business owners and becomes a billionaire. Oh well, hopefully, it will have something resembling legs.
Finally, BH Tilt opened The Resurrection of Gavin Stone yesterday to muted results. The faith-based drama, about a former child star forced to do community service at a local mega-church who ends up starring in an annual Passion Play, earned just $1.135 million in 887 theaters.
Like BH Tilt's previous horror titles, the semi-wide release involved specifically chosen theaters, in this case, multiplexes frequented by faith-based audiences. The marketing campaign was created by BH Tilt but funded elsewhere, was digitally-focused and was in the single-digit millions of dollars.
I don't have anything more to say about this one, so I'll merely say that The Belko Experiment (March 17) and especially Sleight (April 7) look very good.
